Futures market: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 19,785 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 19,875 yuan/mt and a low of 19,780 yuan/mt, closing at 19,830 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.05%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,485/mt, with a high of $2,499/mt and a low of $2,456/mt, closing at $2,486/mt, up $1/mt, an increase of 0.04%.
Summary: On the macro front, more US Fed officials have indicated another rate cut, but the specific extent of the cut is not unified, and the market is waiting for more economic data for guidance. The People's Bank of China cut the 14-day reverse repurchase interest rate by 10 basis points, improving market liquidity. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum market supply slightly increased. As alumina prices showed upward fluctuations due to tight supply, domestic aluminum costs remained high. Under the influence of the September-October peak season, downstream aluminum weekly operating rates were stable, and downstream consumption steadily improved. However, caution is needed regarding the negative impact of overseas market tax policies on domestic aluminum processing enterprises. This week, aluminum inventory continued a slight destocking trend, and attention should be paid to the impact of pre-holiday stocking on future inventory trends. Overall, with a favorable macro atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the aluminum market is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term.
